A Deadly Reminder in St. Louis
On Friday, May 16, 2025, an EF-3 tornado struck St. Louis, cutting a devastating path through the city. It touched down near Clayton and roared through neighborhoods including Forest Park, DeBaliviere Place, Kingsway East, Penrose, Greater Ville, and O’Fallon Park before crossing the Mississippi River into Illinois.
The storm killed five people in St. Louis (and seven total in Missouri), injured at least 38, and damaged or destroyed more than 5,000 structures. Over 100,000 residents lost power a week later, and tens of thousands still lack power. FEMA and city crews continue assessing damage and restoring critical infrastructure; initial property damage estimates are over $1.5 billion.
My daughter’s condo is in the DeBaliviere Place neighborhood, which took a direct hit, and here’s a video I took on her street a few hours after the tornado hit:
https://youtube.com/shorts/Y9l3cUtTnjE
For many, it was a sobering reminder that tornadoes can — and do — strike urban areas.
Why It Feels Like Tornadoes Avoid Cities
I’ve lived in “Tornado Alley” all my life, so I’m pretty accustomed to reports of tornadoes — they happen frequently. Yet, reports of tornadoes that hit densely populated areas are rare. Usually, tornadoes touch down in rural areas. Why is that the case? Why do big cities seem to be (but not always) immune to tornadoes?
The answer is probability. The vast majority of the U.S. is undeveloped. According to the EPA, only 5% of the U.S. is “developed,” with about 3% being urban. The land use in “tornado alley” in the Midwest and South is even less developed. Thus, most tornadoes strike areas other than developed and densely populated areas.
Think of it this way: if you’re randomly tossing darts at a map of the Midwest, most won’t land on Chicago, St. Louis, or Oklahoma City. They’ll hit cornfields, ranchland, and small towns — just because there’s more of them.
Plus, most tornadoes are small. The average damage path is only a few hundred yards wide, and even massive tornadoes—like the 2.6-mile-wide El Reno tornado in Oklahoma—are rare. That means even when a tornado enters a metro area, it usually affects just a portion of it. That was the case in St. Louis. Even though the tornado caused a lot of damage, its path was relatively narrow, and the vast majority of the metropolitan area was unaffected.
The Myth of Urban Protection
There’s a persistent myth that cities are somehow shielded from tornadoes by rivers, hills, skyscrapers, or even the warmer temperatures caused by the “urban heat island” effect. But there’s no scientific basis for any of these theories.
Tornadoes don’t discriminate based on terrain or infrastructure. They’ve crossed rivers, climbed hills, and torn through dense downtowns.
Consider just a few examples:
- Nashville, Tennessee (2020): An EF-3 tornado cut a swath through downtown and surrounding neighborhoods.
- Dallas, Texas (2019): An EF-3 tornado caused over $1.5 billion in damage across a densely populated area.
- St. Louis (1927 and 1959): Two earlier tornadoes left dozens dead and devastated city blocks.
And now, St. Louis has added another to that list.
Why This Matters
The biggest danger in the myth that tornadoes “don’t hit cities” is the complacency it creates. If people believe they’re safe because they live downtown or near tall buildings, they may ignore warnings or fail to prepare.
That false sense of security can be deadly.
Tornadoes may be statistically rare in urban cores, but they are not mythical. They don’t avoid cities — they just haven’t hit yours yet. As we learned in St. Louis last week, they certainly can.
Stay aware. Stay prepared.
Sorry about the damage to Claire’s area. I just got back from volunteering with Action St. Louis. The damage is hard to comprehend.